Assumption Mapping & Prioritization
Framework: Identify → Categorize → Prioritize → Experiment
Critical Assumptions (Impact × Risk Matrix)
🔴 LEAP OF FAITH (High Impact × High Risk)
Test these FIRST — business breaks if wrong.
| # | Assumption | Category | Impact | Risk | Experiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | SME sẵn sàng trả $9/mo cho tool affiliate | Value | 10 | 9 | 10 beta ORGs → track Free→Paid conversion |
| A2 | Referral tracking tự động giải quyết được pain chính | Value | 10 | 7 | Interview 10 ORGs, hỏi top pain → match? |
| A3 | CTV sẽ share link nếu được tracking minh bạch | Usability | 9 | 8 | Beta: track % CTV active share sau 14 ngày |
| A4 | AI Agent có thể handle 95% support | Feasibility | 8 | 8 | Build MVP chatbot → measure resolution rate |
🟡 ACT OF FAITH (High Impact × Medium Risk)
Validate within first 30 days.
| # | Assumption | Category | Impact | Risk | Experiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | "Powered by SaleHay" badge drives organic signups | Viability | 8 | 6 | Track badge→signup funnel for 60 days |
| B2 | $9/mo pricing không bị perceived as "too cheap = low quality" | Value | 7 | 6 | A/B test pricing page messaging |
| B3 | ORG sẽ invite ≥5 CTV trong tháng đầu | Usability | 8 | 5 | Track median CTVs/ORG at Day 30 |
| B4 | Content marketing mang lại 50 leads/tháng sau 90 ngày | Viability | 7 | 6 | Measure organic traffic + lead gen weekly |
🟢 SAFE BET (High Impact × Low Risk)
Monitor but low urgency to test.
| # | Assumption | Category | Impact | Risk | Experiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Thị trường affiliate VN đang tăng trưởng | Market | 9 | 2 | Desk research — already validated |
| C2 | Serverless infra scale được 10K ORGs | Feasibility | 8 | 2 | Load test (synthetic) |
| C3 | SME VN dùng Zalo/Facebook làm kênh chính | Market | 7 | 1 | Known from market data |
Experiment Backlog (Priority Order)
| Priority | Assumption | Experiment | Duration | Success Criteria |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A2 (Pain match) | 10 customer interviews | 2 weeks | 7/10 mention tracking as top pain |
| 2 | A1 (WTP $9) | Beta: offer paid upgrade | 4 weeks | >15% convert Free→Paid |
| 3 | A3 (CTV active) | Beta: track CTV sharing | 2 weeks | >40% CTV generate ≥1 click |
| 4 | A4 (AI support) | Deploy Coze bot, measure | 4 weeks | >80% resolution without human |
| 5 | B1 (Badge viral) | Track badge funnel | 8 weeks | >10% of new ORGs from badge |
| 6 | B3 (CTV invite) | Track invites/ORG | 4 weeks | Median ≥5 CTV/ORG |
Decision Framework
IF Assumption A1 fails (ORGs won't pay $9):
→ PIVOT: Consider freemium-only + transaction fee model
→ OR: Raise price to $19 with more features (counter-intuitive)
IF Assumption A2 fails (tracking not main pain):
→ PIVOT: Find real pain from interviews → rebuild value prop
IF Assumption A3 fails (CTVs don't share):
→ ITERATE: Add gamification, leaderboard, instant rewards
IF Assumption A4 fails (AI can't handle support):
→ PLAN: Budget for 1 part-time CS person ($500/mo)